[lbo-talk] Putin's Petro-Imperialism

boddi satva lbo.boddi at gmail.com
Tue Aug 12 10:28:30 PDT 2008



>From the AP, the facts:

"BP shuts down Georgian pipeline as precaution

Tuesday August 12, 11:58 am ET

By Jane Wardell, AP Business Writer

BP shuts down Georgian pipeline as a precaution amid Russia-Georgia conflict LONDON (AP) -- BP PLC said it shut down an oil pipeline that runs through Georgia on Tuesday as a precautionary measure, but added that it is unaware of any Russian bombings on pipelines in the region. BP said the 90,000-barrel-a-day pipeline to Supsa on Georgia's Black Sea coast from Baku in Azerbaijan will remain closed indefinitely.

Another pipeline operated by the London-based oil company in the former Soviet Republic, the larger Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, is already out of action after a fire last week on its Turkish stretch. The BTC pipeline usually provides around 1 million barrels of Caspian crude to international markets.

BP spokesman Robert Wine said that the Baku-Supsa line was closed because it runs through the center of Georgia, where there was greater risk of conflict."

In other words, the pipelines Putin wanted closed are now closed, thanks to his newfound love of breakaway ethnic minorities.

Anyone think it's a coincidence that these pipelines are run by the same company Putin is trying to dispossess in the TNK deal?

No, of course you don't.

This is transparent.

Obviously I don't care if BP shareholders get dispossessed of anything, except if you give me a choice between having assets ruled by Putin or by BP - an unpleasant choice in an unpleasant world - I'll take BP every time. I prefer modern financial imperialism to the old style of murder-based imperialism.

Here is the line that's coming, BTW:

First, there is the ethnic-minority, NATO-imperialist canard.

Then there is the "offense".

Then there is the action on the basis of "righteous" response to threat.

Then there will the boorish hand waving: "you see? your precious pipeline is fine, we don't even want it, it doesn't work anyway."

Goal achieved (the important thing in all that was the "it doesn't work"), the Kremlin will start "negotiating" the "new reality" in the Caspian.

Then will come the "charm" offensive, as Russia promotes "stability" and "justice for ethnic minorities" in what just happens to be an area that allows strategic control of Caspian oil and gas reserves. The US - desperate for a strongman who has the muscle they need - will probably bend over for Putin, as they have done.

If they are really, really smart - and I think Putin is - the Russians will take the HUGE opportunity that Bush missed and start backing the Kurds. They may have started already, witness the pipeline fire. Again, the new Putin has found that he absolutely LOVES breakaway ethnic minorities.

There are a lot of Kurds in Georgia. A Russian-dominated Georgia plus an active, Russian-backed Kurdistan movement would effectively provide a geographical checkmate to European access to Caspian Oil.

It is such basic geo-politics that one finds oneself once again amazed at Bush's stupidity. He got all the problems of invading Iraq and none of the benefits. Potentially, and with the help of the Kurds, the unstable Armenian and Azeri regions, and other ethnic minorities, Russia and Iran could dominate and control the flow of oil from Kirkuk, north.

Now I happen to be very sympathetic to the Kurds. I happen to like them and would like - on a sentimental basis - to see the formation of a Kurdistan. However, I would not like to see it if it means the splitting of a huge portion of the world's oil wealth between the Iranian mullahs and the Russian mafia. And as much as I would like to see world socialism, I do NOT think the way to get there is to oppose financial capitalism by backing thugs and religious zealots.



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