On May 14, 2008, at 2:54 PM, Dwayne Monroe wrote:
> It's a reasonably safe bet that President Obama will continue to
> authorize (and, unlike his predecessor, elegantly explain the need
> for) actions such as the ongoing bombing of Baghdad's Sadr City
> section.
Speaking of which...
Financial Times - May 14, 2008
Candidates converge on Middle East policy By Daniel Dombey in Washington
The Israeli embassy in Washington had a surprise guest when it celebrated the country's 60th anniversary last week: Senator Barack Obama.
Just as the event began, the Democratic presidential hopeful appeared on stage, exchanged hugs with the Israeli ambassador and pledged his commitment to the country's security and prosperity.
It was a useful time for the Democratic candidate to proclaim his support for Israel. Mr Obama was involved in an irritable exchange with John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, who accused the Democrat of being Hamas's preferred candidate in the US election.
George W. Bush, the president, will underline the importance of Middle East policy to the US when he arrives in Israel today for his second visit in four months.
For all the difference in temperament and outlook between them, many analysts and insiders say there are important points of continuity between the three main presidential campaigns' policies on the Middle East, despite the many controversies in the region.
Iraq, where Mr McCain has pledged victory, and Mr Obama and Hillary Clinton, his Democratic rivals, have committed themselves to a swift exit, is a special case.
On three other crucial issues - Iran's nuclear programme, Israel- Palestine, and democracy in the Middle East, there are similarities between their approaches.
On Iran, Mr McCain's long-standing argument that the only thing worse than military action against Tehran would be a nuclear-armed Iran contrasts with Mr Obama's suggestion of a meeting with Mahmoud Ahmadi- Nejad, Iran's president. But both candidates have sounded more cautious notes recently.
"There's much more that we can do to tighten the economic and financial and political pressures on Iran," Randy Scheunemann, Mr McCain's senior foreign policy adviser, said in a recent interview with the Financial Times, indicating the Republican's desire to intensify the current administration's sanctions push.
Susan Rice, one of Mr Obama's foreign policy advisers, in comments at the weekend to the New York Times, played down the likelihood of a meeting between Mr Ahmadi-Nejad and Mr Obama, should he become president. "Nobody said he would initiate contacts at the presidential level; that requires due preparation and advance work," she said.
Indeed, Mr Obama's senior advisers are aware that Mr Ahmadi-Nejad's reputation is so toxic in the US that any serious effort towards rapprochement with Iran might have to wait until he is out of office.
"The decision about what the next administration's Iran policy looks like may have a lot more to do with what happens in the Iranian presidential election in June 2009 than what happens in the US presidential election in November," said Daniel Levy, an analyst at the New America Foundation in Washington.
On Israel-Palestine, a more obvious consensus is already apparent, where each candidate supports Mr Bush's emphasis on a two-state solution, in a process in which the US no longer has the dominant role it once enjoyed.
Aaron David Miller, a veteran US diplomat and author of a new book on the subject, The Much Too Promised Land, argues that the contours of US policy are now largely set and that the parties are accustomed to meet on their own, with a less active US role than before.
"No matter if Obama, Hillary or McCain is elected, the debate in this country between Israeli supporters and detractors is basically over," he said. He argues that neither the current meetings between Israelis and Palestinians nor the efforts of the Egyptians to reach a modus vivendi between Israel and Hamas have been orchestrated by Washington. "In my judgment, the story has gone beyond America," he said.
Mr Scheunemann says that like Mr Bush, Mr McCain wants to encourage reform in the Middle East. But he adds: "There's also a risk of moving to elections too quickly: if you have had societies that have had no free and fair elections you are very likely to end up with the kind of outcome we saw with Hamas [which won Palestinian elections in 2007] in Gaza."
Even on Iraq, the great divisive issue in US politics, some observers caution that, in the end, there might be less difference between the candidates' approach than first meets the eye.