Ukraine has an extremely fractured elite, as can be seen by the fact that they are having their third parliamentary elections in three years and Yushchenko just broke with Timoshenko for the billionth time, calling her a "traitor" for not condemning Russia over Georgia. Despite the fact that most Ukrainians support Russia's position and Yushchenko has a single-digit approval rating. (Ah, the madness that is Ukrainian politics!) I mean, who supports Yushchenko? The Ukrainian Diaspora in the US and Canada, who are almost entirely from the extreme west of the country.
At least Merkel and Sarkozy, maybe because they are a little closer, seem to realize that trying to force Ukraine into NATO would likely cause the eastern regions (which, nota bene, is where the economy is) to secede. Just what Europe needs -- a civil war.
I think that part of what is in play here is that the US was horribly suckered by Saakashvili, who played them like fools, and of course they can't admit it in public.
--- On Wed, 10/8/08, andie nachgeborenen <andie_nachgeborenen at yahoo.com> wrote:
> From: andie nachgeborenen <andie_nachgeborenen at yahoo.com>
> Subject: Re: [lbo-talk] [Marxism-Thaxis] Obama falters McCain the winner
> To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org
> Date: Wednesday, October 8, 2008, 6:18 PM
> Hope you are right. You assume, of course, that what
> ordinary Ukrainians think actually counts, that Ukraine is a
> more democratic society than the US, in fact. That's
> hard to believe. What do Ukrainian _elites_ think, I'd
> like to know. Probably, being sensible ex-apparatchiki or
> New Men, they don't want to bait the Bear either. I
> wouldn't, if I were them.
>
> To have our candidates advocate admitting the ex-Republics
> into NATO is still a stupid and dangerous thing, and
> it's not like it's something they have to say like,
> We Love Israel Better Than Anyplace Except Here, The
> Greatest Country On Earth, The Land Of Opportunity, etc.
> Most Americans don't know where Ukraine is, what NATO
> is, and they probably think that Russia is still Communist.
> Am I right, Doug? So this bluster is unnecessary as well as
> dumb.
>