[lbo-talk] Graber on consensus; cool article on growth

c b cb31450 at gmail.com
Wed Mar 6 09:45:23 PST 2013


Doug Henwood

Most definitely not true. Growth is almost entirely a product of capitalism. Among many other sources, here's Robert Gordon: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/PolicyInsights/PolicyInsight63.pdf

^^^^^^^ CB: That's a really cool article , Doug. I suppose he might have mentioned the Ford assembly line in the second industrial period, 1870 to 1900; and then other forms of automated production. He seems to emphasize new consumer goods more than new instruments of production . Inventions in instruments of production would seem to increase production, growth, more than the types of goods produced. Then of course there is production of services as opposed to goods. I'd imagine much growth in recent decades is in production of services.

3. A useful organising principle to understand the pace of growth since 1750 is the sequence of three industrial revolutions. The first (IR1) with its main inventions between 1750 and 1830 created steam engines, cotton spinning, and railroads. The second (IR2) was the most important, with its three central inventions of electricity, the internal combustion engine, and running water with indoor plumbing, in the relatively short interval of 1870 to 1900. Both the first two revolutions required about 100 years for their full effects to percolate through the economy. During the two decades 1950-70, the benefits of the IR2 were still transforming the economy, including air conditioning, home appliances, and the interstate highway system. After 1970, productivity growth slowed markedly, most plausibly because the main ideas of IR2 had by and large been implemented by then.

4. The computer and internet revolution (IR3) began around 1960 and reached its climax in the dot.com era of the late 1990s, but its main impact on productivity has withered away in the past eight years. Many of the inventions that replaced tedious and repetitive clerical labour with computers happened a long time ago, in the 1970s and 1980s. Invention since 2000 has centered on entertainment and communication devices that are smaller, smarter, and more capable, but do not fundamentally change labour productivity or the standard of living in the way that electric light, motor cars, or indoor plumbing changed it.



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